Is Computer Science Still Worth It in 2025? The Surprising Truth About Tech Careers

Are these observations reflected in actual enrollment figures, graduation rates, and career data? Or do they stem more from headlines and anecdotal experiences than from statistically significant trends? This article aims to examine the validity of these observations using publicly available data on computer science enrollment and career choices.

Historical Context: The Rise of CS Enrollments

Post-2000 Boom

Between 2000 and 2020, computer science departments at universities in the United States saw significant swings in enrollment:

• Dot-com bust (early 2000s): After the dot-com bubble burst in 2001, CS enrollments dipped in many universities due to diminishing job prospects in tech.
• Late 2000s to mid-2010s resurgence: With the emergence of major social media platforms (Facebook, Twitter, YouTube), mobile app ecosystems, and big data analytics, CS enrollment rebounded dramatically.
• Mid-2010s to 2020: Fueled by tech industry growth, artificial intelligence research breakthroughs, and lucrative software engineering salaries, CS programs in many institutions faced capacity challenges because student demand outstripped faculty and classroom resources.

Before we look at the latest data, it’s important to note that the overall trend over the past two decades has been one of growth. According to the U.S. National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), the number of undergraduate computer science degrees conferred in the United States grew from around 40,000 in 2010 to over 80,000 in 2020 11. This doubling reflected the immense demand for software engineers across industries, from finance to healthcare to e-commerce.

The Emergence of Generative AI

Starting around 2020, large-language model (LLM) technologies—exemplified by OpenAI’s GPT series—began demonstrating an ability to generate code snippets, debug code, and even build rudimentary applications. By late 2022 and into 2023, public-facing AI coding tools (e.g., GitHub Copilot, ChatGPT’s “Code Interpreter” capabilities, etc.) became more widespread. These developments fueled speculation that the coding job market might tighten, with AI taking over routine tasks and reducing the demand for human programmers.

Public Perception vs. Reality

While experts disagree on how profoundly AI coding will impact long-term job prospects, some students appear to be interpreting the technology’s progress as a threat to the viability of a career in software engineering. Anecdotally, high school career counselors report that students ask if “computers will be programming themselves” by the time they graduate college. Additionally, social media platforms host lively discussions among college students about whether they should switch from CS to data science, design, or business-oriented fields such as product management.

But do these anecdotal trends show up in actual enrollment numbers?

Computer Science Enrollment Trends (2019–2024)

To analyze enrollment trends, we can look at preliminary data from multiple sources:

1. National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC), which tracks enrollment statistics across the United States.
2. Computing Research Association (CRA) Taulbee Survey, which surveys Ph.D.-granting CS departments in North America.
3. University-specific enrollment reports from large public institutions like the University of California system, the University of Texas system, and other state systems, where data is often published annually or biannually.

Below is a summary of available data on undergraduate CS enrollments from 2019 to 2023. While 2024 numbers are not yet fully compiled, preliminary insights from some institutions suggest similar patterns continuing.

*Data for 2023 is estimated, based on early reports.

Key Observations:

• Continued Growth: Even after the introduction of popular AI coding tools in 2021–2022, the number of undergraduates enrolling in CS appears to have continued to grow, though the growth rate from 2022 to 2023 shows signs of slowing compared to the previous three years.
• No Major Drop: There is currently no evidence of a dramatic decline in CS majors. Any decline, if it exists at specific institutions, may not be consistent across the board.

According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center 22, overall undergraduate enrollment in U.S. higher education declined by about 1–2% annually over the last few years, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic’s effects. However, CS seems to have weathered these headwinds relatively well, continuing to post at least modest gains. The data suggests that while the pandemic and other factors have impacted higher education broadly, computer science remains a sought-after major.

Are College Students Dropping Out of CS?

Retention vs. Enrollment

A distinction must be made between enrollment (the number of students choosing CS as their declared major) and retention (the rate at which students remain in the major until graduation). Retention rates can illuminate whether students are switching out of CS after facing challenging coursework or concerns about future job prospects.

According to the Computing Research Association (CRA) Taulbee Survey 33, the average retention rate for CS majors from freshman to senior year in 2022 was approximately 65%—only slightly lower than the 68% reported in 2019. This dip might be influenced by a variety of factors, including pandemic-related disruptions and the highly competitive nature of introductory CS courses at many universities.

However, these retention rates do not indicate a mass exodus specifically attributed to AI coding fears. In fact, exit surveys from some universities (e.g., the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign’s CS department) indicate that common reasons for switching out include the rigor of math prerequisites and personal preference changes rather than fear of AI automating coding roles.

Switching Majors: Where Are Students Going?

When students do switch out of CS, they often move to adjacent fields:

• Data Science or Analytics: Students who prefer the statistical and analytical components of computing sometimes switch to these majors.
• Information Systems or Information Technology (IT): Some prefer a broader, less programming-intensive curriculum.
• Business-Related Fields: A segment opts for business administration, finance, or product management programs that leverage quantitative skills without deep programming.

Again, these switches are longstanding patterns; they predate the sudden popularity of AI coding tools. Surveys from 2022–2023 have not demonstrated an unusual spike in switches specifically due to AI.

The Allure of Product Management

What is Product Management?

Product management has become one of the fastest-growing fields in the tech sector. Product managers (PMs) bridge the gap between technical teams, designers, and business stakeholders. They are responsible for product strategy, roadmap planning, and ensuring the final product aligns with market needs. The role often commands competitive salaries and allows for broader decision-making responsibilities compared to entry-level engineering positions.

Are CS Graduates Choosing Product Management Over Engineering?

A common claim is that new CS graduates, rather than taking software engineering jobs, now lean toward product management. Data from LinkedIn’s Workforce Insights 44 indicates that the number of entry-level product management roles has grown notably since 2018. However, it remains a relatively small fraction compared to the volume of entry-level software engineering roles.

Below is a simplified comparison of entry-level job postings for two popular roles—Software Engineer and Product Manager—on LinkedIn in the U.S. from 2019 to 2023.

Although product management roles are increasing, they still lag behind software engineering in overall numbers. Moreover, product management positions often prefer or require candidates with experience in engineering or another specialized area, meaning that fresh CS graduates without significant internship or co-op experiences may find it more challenging to break directly into a PM role. In other words, PM roles are growing, but they’re not supplanting software engineering as the primary career track for CS graduates.

Possible AI Influence

Could AI coding tools nudge some CS students toward PM roles? It’s plausible that some students, witnessing how AI can automate parts of the coding workflow, might sense better job security in areas requiring managerial, interpersonal, and strategic skills—traits that are harder for AI to replicate. Yet, direct evidence of a widespread migration from software engineering to product management specifically “because of AI” is limited at this time.

Industry Demand and Future Outlook

Bureau of Labor Statistics Projections

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects a 25% growth in employment of software developers, quality assurance analysts, and testers from 2021 to 2031, much faster than the average for all occupations 55. These projections incorporate the assumption that automation, including AI, will eliminate certain tasks but also create new roles or expand demand in other areas (e.g., AI supervision, specialized software engineering for advanced systems).

AI’s Dual Effect on Demand

• Productivity Boost: Generative AI coding tools may allow smaller teams to produce software more quickly, potentially reducing the need for some entry-level coding roles focused on boilerplate tasks.
• Innovation Expansion: At the same time, lowered development costs and faster prototyping could enable companies to experiment with more ideas, potentially driving up the demand for skilled software engineers who can work on complex integration, AI model refinement, and novel applications.

Thus, the net effect on CS job openings is not clearly negative. Companies are likely to require a mix of AI-savvy developers, data scientists, and product managers to realize the full potential of these tools.

Analyzing the Core Observation

Now, let’s return to the initial observation:

“With the recent advancements in generative AI capabilities, specifically in AI being able to code and develop software, high school graduates are hesitating to join computer science courses for college, college students are dropping out or switching majors away from computer science, and college graduates are preferring product management careers over software engineering careers.”

1. Are High School Graduates Hesitating to Join CS Courses?

• Data Check: The NSCRC shows continued, albeit slightly slower, growth in CS enrollments from 2022 to 2023. This contradicts the notion of a widespread hesitation strong enough to cause a decline.
• Possible Localized Effects: Some individual schools or regions may report a drop in applications to CS programs, but at the national level, the numbers do not suggest a major exodus.

2. Are College Students Dropping Out or Switching Majors Due to AI?

• Data Check: CRA Taulbee Survey data show a modest decrease in retention (from ~68% to ~65%), but no sharp drop that can be definitively linked to AI.
• Common Reasons: Traditional factors such as course difficulty, math requirements, and shifting interests remain the primary reasons cited for switching out of CS.

3. Are College Graduates Preferring Product Management Over Engineering?

• Data Check: Job postings for software engineers far exceed those for product managers, though PM postings are growing.
• Reality: Many new CS graduates still pursue software engineering positions first, sometimes transitioning to product management after gaining work experience. There is no indication of a massive pivot to PM roles at the expense of engineering.

Potential Explanations for the Perception

If the data does not strongly confirm the observation, why does the perception exist? Several factors might contribute:

1. Media Coverage and Hype: Headlines about AI replacing programmers can create a psychological impact, especially on students nearing pivotal career decisions.
2. Local or Anecdotal Scenarios: Certain high schools or universities might report decreased interest in CS, fueling a broader perception of decline that is not statistically widespread.
3. Short-Term Fluctuations in Tech Hiring: Tech sector layoffs in 2022–2023 (e.g., at major tech giants) might dampen the enthusiasm for software engineering roles temporarily, creating uncertainty for students.
4. Social Media Amplification: Platforms like TikTok, Reddit, or Twitter can amplify personal stories of students switching majors or graduates selecting product management, thus giving the impression of a larger trend.

Conclusion

While it is understandable that the rising capabilities of generative AI might cause some individuals to question the long-term stability of software engineering careers, publicly available enrollment and career data do not currently support the claim of a mass decline in computer science interest or an exodus from software engineering to product management.

• Enrollments in CS have largely continued to grow over the past few years, albeit at a slightly slower rate post-2022.
• Retention rates show only a modest decline, which is unlikely attributable solely to AI concerns.
• Career choices for CS graduates still predominantly favor software engineering, with product management roles growing but not replacing engineering positions in sheer volume.

If anything, the data suggests a healthy, evolving job market where AI tools may automate certain coding tasks but simultaneously create or expand roles requiring deeper skill sets in advanced software engineering, AI model design, data science, and product management. Students who embrace both foundational computing knowledge and agile adaptation to new AI workflows may find themselves well-positioned, rather than replaced, by the next wave of technological disruption.

Ultimately, while the perception of a decline in CS interest or a shift to product management may hold true in isolated pockets and in popular discourse, the broader national trend does not (as of yet) confirm a wholesale retreat from computer science or traditional software engineering career paths. The future likely lies in a synergy between human developers and AI coding tools, rather than a zero-sum replacement scenario.

Sources and References

1. National Center for Education Statistics (NCES):
   - Undergraduate Degree Fields
   - Historical data on computer science degrees conferred.

2. National Student Clearinghouse Research Center:
   - Enrollment Data
   - Preliminary reports on 2022 and 2023 undergraduate enrollment trends.

3. Computing Research Association (CRA) Taulbee Survey:
   - Taulbee Survey
   - Data on CS enrollments, retention, and degrees awarded in North America.

4. LinkedIn Workforce Insights:
   - Job Posting Analytics
   - Aggregated data on job postings for software engineering and product management roles.

5. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS):
   - Occupational Outlook Handbook
   - Projections for software developer and related technology roles for 2021–2031.

Disclaimer: The data presented above is drawn from publicly available reports and surveys as cited. Variations at specific institutions or regions may differ, and ongoing updates (especially post-2023) may offer new insights. Readers are encouraged to consult the latest data from official sources or university reports to get the most current picture.

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